Drop in trade to impact Miami-Dade industrial

MIAMI - Vacancy is expected to rise and rents will fall in Miami-Dade this year as a decline in employment reduces demand for goods and services offered by retailers, wholesalers and contractors, according to the Midyear 2009 National Industrial Report by Marcus & Millichap. In addition, a drop in international trade will decrease the space needs of importers and exporters.

“Transaction velocity declined 28% last year, and only a few deals have occurred so far in 2009,” says Kirk Felici, regional manager of the firm’s Miami office.

Following are some of the most significant aspects of the Miami Industrial Research Report:

- Employers are expected to cut 43,000 jobs in Miami-Dade County this year, a 4.2% decrease but less than the loss of 36,400 positions in 2008. Declining imports and retail spending will contribute to the elimination of 7,000 trade, transportation and utilities jobs.

- Builders are scheduled to deliver 807,000sf in 2009, down from 1.5 msf last year. Projects slated for completion include 328,000sf at Flagler Station in Medley and the 190,000sf Beacon Lakes in the Airport West submarket.

- The vacancy rate in the county is forecast to rise 280 basis points this year to 12%, reflecting negative net absorption of 3.9 msf, up from negative 3.5 msf in 2008.

- Asking rents are expected to fall 6.8% to $6.41 psf in 2009. Effective rents are projected to drop 8.6% to $6.15 psf.