M&M: Outlook bright long term for Jax apts.

JACKSONVILLE - While the performance of Jacksonville’s apartment market will moderate through 2009, the extended outlook remains fairly bright, according to the 2009 National Apartment Report by Marcus & Millichap.

“The local apartment market will continue to present opportunities for investors,” says David Bradley, sales manager of Marcus & Millichap’s Jacksonville office.

Following are some of the most significant aspects of the latest Jacksonville Apartment Research Report:

- Employers are expected to decrease payrolls 1.1% in 2009, shedding 6,500 positions.

- Approximately 1,000 apartments will come online this year, down from 2,300 units in 2008.

- After a 190-basis-point increase last year, vacancy will rise 110 basis points to 12.9% by year-end 2009.

- Shadow stock and job contractions will hamper rent gains. Asking rents are forecast to tick up 0.4% this year to $803 per month, while effective rents drop 0.5% to $755 per month.

- Short-term weakness due to the local economy and shadow rentals will drive apartment investors to the more stable Southside and Jacksonville Heights areas. Opportunities will also exist in the Western and Northern submarkets as foreclosures and bank-owned assets offer investors the chance to purchase at a discount.